29 September 2022
Directly relevant to crypto is the dollar index (DXY) – if it falls crypto should rally. Right now we are testing the peak of the 20 week cycle which is due to roll over with the next trough expected mid-November. The second 80 day cycle in the set is due to trough at the same […]
29 September 2022
We haven’t looked at the Ethereum | Bitcoin spread for a while. In the last note on XETXBT in late August, we were stalking a top out in the June rally. Price pressed a little higher than expected, but on 9 September, it finally broke down. The June channel broke, then key support broke, then the MACD […]
27 September 2022
Today, I’ve got my eye on the Bitcoin hourly chart – price broke higher today, and as was anticipated in yesterday’s note, has formed a U-shaped base and is challenging the breakout level aggressively. The preferred view remains for a push to around US$23,000 and then a fade and pullback over the next month or […]
21 September 2022
The weekly Bitcoin chart here shows that price is now testing the March 2020 regression channel two standard error lower boundary. This is more or less the same as saying it is two standard deviations below the average, which implies overstretched to the downside. At the same time the move down from the last peak […]
20 September 2022
Just a quick tactical update on gold because I think it offers more clarity than crypto at the moment and also, as we have covered in multiple previous notes, because gold is tightly correlated to crypto at present. One reason that it is correlated of course is because of the US dollar (DXY) and the […]
19 September 2022
For me, the most important chart currently is the US Dollar index (DXY). On the one hand, it is a good proxy for inflation and therefore recession, and therefore Fed action (currently destructive to the market and probably by design). As the dollar rallies, it speaks to more economic stress and as a corollary the […]
5 September 2022
We’re looking at Bitcoin at the 240-minute level today. Price has swept down impulsively from the 15 August top of US$25,203. “Impulsive” as you might remember from the Elliott Wave study notes means swift and non-overlapping. This is the character we would expect of a final move down. We are still in the 40-day cycle trough […]
Info Blocks In Your Inbox.
If you want relevant updates occasionally, sign up for the private newsletter. Your email is never shared.