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With only days left for the US election, cryptos recovered from a whiplash dip late last week after a media report of a US probe of Tether.
Perhaps none of the legal steps US authorities have taken against crypto firms in the past year pose as big a danger to the digital asset market as a crackdown on Tether, the "too big, to fail" token.
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Still, cryptos broadly have quickly recovered.
Bitcoin Hits $70K
For the first time since June, Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 on Monday night, with over 3% gains, thanks to speculation over the possible results of next week's US election and inflows into specialised crypto exchange-traded funds. The top token, however, pared back some gains to trade at around $69,800 as of publication time.
While Bitcoin has been in a range since hitting a record high in March, the crypto has risen in recent weeks, barring a few dips here and there.
To give a little context, the top token is up 3.6% over the last week, 5.7% over the last 14 days, and about 105% over the last year.
Smaller coins, like Ethereum, which came in second, also saw little increases.
That is in line with a broad jump in risk assets driven by Israel and Iran's decisions to limit attacks on each other.
Does that mean geopolitical tensions are going away?
Not really. With geopolitical worries ebbing, Bitcoin's directional bias is to the upside in the final stretch of the US elections.
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US Election Odds
Shares of Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group (Nasdaq: DJT) – an indicator of bets in favour of the former president – surged over 20% on Monday. The stock is currently almost 200% up over the past month.
Cryptos, too, are riding the so-called Trump trade wave ever since he endorsed digital assets and openly pushed for making the US a crypto hub.
Trump's Polymarket odds hit 66%.
Still, the US election endgame seems irrelevant to cryptos, with many betting that either candidate's election would boost them.
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Also, there are clear indications of ETF inflows recovering after a dry spell.
Bitcoin options are suggesting a possible jump to $80,000 after the election.
Everyone expects more Fed rate cuts in the coming months, but the outcome of the US presidential election could influence their speed and depth. Of course, this is not the only conundrum policymakers are wrestling with. However, data on growth and hurricane-hit jobs will be the focus for now.
Beyond the regular news flow, retail investors' broader adoption of cryptos is still missing, suggesting more upside when it does happen. Institutional investors are the driving force at the moment, with mom-and-pop investors starting to trickle in.
What Next?
While Bitcoin briefly rallied to top $70,000, the move back poses several questions.
BRN predicts that the top taken needs a sustainable rise above $70,000 to test its record high of $73,798 in March.
Trump has pledged to turn the US into the global centre of cryptocurrency. Harris has taken a more balanced stance, promising to back an industry-wide regulatory structure. Both their stances counter President Joe Biden's onslaught on the industry.
Regardless of the election outcome, options traders have boosted their wagers that Bitcoin will rally past $80,000 by the end of November.
On November 5, Election Day, the implied volatility is high.
So far this month, net inflows into US spot bitcoin ETFs have totalled around $3.1 billion.
Bitcoin has risen 66% in 2024 and has recently withstood a decline in bets on the Fed rate cut path and news of increased US surveillance of Tether, a key stablecoin for cryptocurrency trading.
Elsewhere
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Blockcast
This week's Blockcast features Augustine Fan, founding partner of SOFA.org. SOFA is a decentralized, non-profit, and open-source DAO dedicated to developing a trustless, DeFi ecosystem capable of atomically settling financial assets on the blockchain.
Fan chats with host Takatoshi Shibayama focuses on role of structured products in crypto, they types available to investors, how they work, and how investors can use them to capitalize on volatility.
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Events
Singapore Fintech Festival (Singapore 6-8 November 2024)
As 2025 approaches, financial leaders face the challenge of navigating a landscape transformed by AI, data, and digital platforms that are rewriting the rules of global trade, commerce and financial services.
At the Singapore FinTech Festival 2024, hear from global leaders at Microsoft, Goldman Sachs, PayPal, and Tencent, and more, as they share the strategies shaping the future of finance.With 66,000+ participants from 150 countries and 10,000+ organisations, everyone who's anyone is here.
Click to see who’s attending and who you can network with at #SFF2024! Blockhead is proud to offer a 20% discount on tickets via this link.
GeckoCon (Bangkok, 11 November 2024)
GeckoCon returns, and this year we're diving into the revolutionary world of Web3 Gaming! Discover how the fusion of blockchain and traditional gaming is creating a whole new entertainment layer.Don't miss out—visit CoinGecko now to secure your spot in our first ever Hybrid Conference set to take place in Bangkok, Thailand. Or from the comforts of your home!
Get your tickets now with Blockhead's 40% code: BHGC24
[Limited to 30 redemptions, expires 31 October 2024]
[Redacted] (Bangkok, 9-11 November 2024)
The [REDACTED] conference is bringing together the brightest minds in technology for a transformative three-day event from November 9-11, 2024, at the Avani Riverside hotel. This gathering will take place just ahead of Devcon and promises to be a pivotal moment for the convergence of artificial intelligence and Web3.
Interested readers can apply for free tickets here, and sign up for the hackathon here.
Devcon (Bangkok, 12-15 November 2024)
Following Devcon Bogota in 2022, the Ethereum Foundation is set to host Devcon SEA, the 7th edition of its premier developer and community conference.
This landmark event is expected to bring together a diverse group of individuals, including developers, researchers, academics, and community members, to explore the future of Ethereum and its potential to reshape society.
Tickets are available here, with discounts for local builders, students and teachers, and youth.
Consensus (Hong Kong, 18-20 February)
Consensus is heading to Hong Kong, bringing together the industry’s most important voices from East and West for pivotal conversations and deal-making opportunities.
Consensus Hong Kong convenes global leaders in tech and finance to debate pressing issues, announce key developments and deals, and share their visions for the future.
Use promo code BLOCKHEADESK20 at checkout for a 20% discount on tickets here.
It's All Happening on LinkedIn
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