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American computer scientist, legal scholar and cryptographer Nicholas (Nick) Szabo is now the frontrunner in Polymarket's prediction market for the individual to be identified as Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto in the HBO documentary, "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery," which premieres on Tuesday, October 8, at 9 p.m. ET and Wednesday, October 9, at 1 a.m. UTC.
With approximately $12 million wagered on the outcome so far, current market sentiment places Szabo's chances at around 20%, having peaked at 32.4% earlier in the day.
Szabo is well-known for developing the concept of smart contracts and for designing a decentralized digital currency mechanism called "bit gold," which has been described as a direct precursor to Bitcoin's architecture. His insights into cryptography and decentralized systems have been highly influential in shaping the landscape of modern blockchain technology.
Currently, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a notable figure in the cryptocurrency community, holds second place with a 10.8% chance. Back was mentioned in Satoshi's original white paper and was one of the first individuals Satoshi reached out to during Bitcoin's development.
Despite speculation, Back remains tight-lipped, stating on Twitter/X, "no one knows who satoshi is. and that's a good thing."
Meanwhile, Len Sassaman, an American programmer and prominent member of the cypherpunk community, who previously led the predictions with a 67% chance, has now fallen to fourth place with an 8.5% likelihood. Sassaman, who tragically passed away in 2011, has recently been suggested in discussions around the HBO documentary as a potential candidate for the elusive identity of Satoshi Nakamoto.
Perion Lim
Satoshi Nakamoto is the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, the first decentralized cryptocurrency, introduced in a white paper titled "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" published in 2008. The true identity of Satoshi remains unknown, leading to widespread speculation and intrigue within the cryptocurrency community.
Satoshi's contributions include the original Bitcoin software and the first blockchain, which laid the groundwork for the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. Despite their significant impact, Satoshi stepped back from active involvement in the project around 2011 and has not been publicly heard from since, further fueling theories about their identity, which range from individual programmers to groups of developers.
