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Central banks around the world are grappling with the delicate dance of taming inflation while avoiding a recession. This week, we saw contrasting decisions from major economies, with Switzerland's central bank (SNB) cutting interest rates, while the Bank of England (BOE) opted to hold.
The SNB's rate cut of 25 basis points to 1.25%, following a quarter-point reduction in March, reflects their confidence that inflation is on a downward trajectory. They cited a decrease in underlying inflationary pressures, with their 2024 forecast dropping to 1.3%.
This aligns with the positive trend in the UK, where headline inflation dropped to its lowest level in a year at 2%. However, the BoE kept its main interest rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 5.25%, saying it's "too soon to cut rates."
Historically, a decrease in interest rates can make riskier assets like stocks and potentially digital assets more attractive. This is because investors might seek higher returns that traditional fixed-income investments like bonds no longer offer.
"Positive news on inflation in the UK, which has hit the 2% target, alongside a second interest rate cut in Switzerland, and the ECB's expected rate cuts in September and December, suggest that global liquidity levels will rise throughout 2024," said brn analyst Valentin Fournier.
"We expect this increase in liquidity to propel Bitcoin and Ethereum to higher levels," Fournier added.
The key player missing from this equation is the US Federal Reserve. Unlike the SNB and other central banks, the Fed has yet to make any rate cuts, though one or two is expected by the end of the year. Their stance will significantly influence global market sentiment, including the performance of digital assets.
While the SNB's move and declining inflation figures are positive signs, the BoE's decision to hold and the uncertainty surrounding the Fed keep the future unclear. Additionally, the dovish turn of some BOE committee members suggests a potential shift towards rate cuts in the UK later this year.
A coordinated global shift towards lower interest rates could potentially lead to a bullish trend for cryptocurrencies, but remaining inflation concerns warrant a cautious approach. While the SNB's move and declining inflation figures are positive signs, the BoE's decision to hold and the uncertainty surrounding the Fed keep the future unclear.
