Blocksmith Says: Nasdaq Bull Trap; Hard Down for Crypto

17 November 2022

YTD the correlation between Nasdaq futures and Bitcoin is +87%, namely they have been dancing to the same tune.. However so far this month, with the FTX “money laundering Dems money through Ukraine” event, the two series have decoupled to -0.13%. 

My view, macro wise, is that we are due a rotation: dollar up, equities down, commodities down, crypto down. The daily chart of Nasdaq here is difficult but here is an interpretation:

  1. The move up from the 13 October low is straggly – this is NOT the way big moves to the upside begin. The straggly chop is because a longer downtrend component is leaning into price.
  2. There was a channel breakout on 10 November but price tapped into the top of the up channel and pulled back hard and kind of died on its feet since, this looks like a Bull trap – price breaks to the upside and Buy stops of short sellers are “gunned” by savvy market makers and whales, then price collapses in on itself.
  3. All of this happened at natural resistance.
  4. Tight bearish “M” top in RSI. 

My view is down hard soon. 

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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