Blocksmith Says: Bitcoin Looking at Sharp Sell-Off

16 November 2022

The Bitcoin weekly chart has lots of interesting elements that point to the sharp sell-off into the anticipated 18-month cycle low we were looking at yesterday – range US$10,000–14,000 expected from end December 2022 to end January/early February 2023. 

  1. 40 week cycle that began at end June 2021 peaked very early mid-November 2021 – early peak (or left translated) is bearish and means the higher cycle (the 18 month) is heading down and acting as a tailwind.
  2. Five-wave impulse move down from the peak and we look to be in the final Wave 5 phase.
  3. Long uptrend “support” line from 2015 break down mid-September and then runaway move down confirms its authority.
  4. Negative reversal in RSI through the weak price retest of the trend line – RSI up, price down means poor ease of movement and is bearish.

The FTX event shock is not fully digested and the US dollar still looks to be setting up to advance. Preferred view, keep looking down.

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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