Blocksmith Says: Pick Bitcoin Over Ethereum

4 October 2022

Reviewing recent notes where we were looking for upside reversals in Bitcoin and Gold, we’re pretty comfortable sitting back on them for now and letting them play out to the upside a while.

Nasdaq and SPX may have just bottomed too and risk-on sentiment looks to be expanding. This confuses people who ponder when they read the news. They think: “Hang on, we have possible nuclear war, a food crisis, an energy crisis, runaway inflation, recession, corrupt imbeciles holding high office.. how on earth is this a set up for a rally?” Because that’s the way market sentiment works.

Tomorrow’s news is today’s technical analysis.. It’s another reason why successful businessmen often fail at trading. They have material success in the world of business, which is mainly about being good at reading people and getting your way and they think the skills gained there transfer to markets. Usually they don’t. Because the market is really just a crowd of crazy people charging hither and thither. The charts are simply the footprints they leave behind.

So in the meantime and back to the day job, let’s check in on Ethereum vs Bitcoin to see where we are a better off placing our crypto bets. Here is the weekly chart – there is a big range from last June, we had a triple top testing the upper boundary and all the while momentum (MACD here) was falling.

Whenever you see price pushing up and momentum not, it points to poor ease of movement to the upside. Which means struggle and usually price ends up becoming exhausted and giving up. The bottom of the range is 22% or so lower and that’s where we are looking. In other words, choose Bitcoin over Ethereum for a while.

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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