Blocksmith Says: Bitcoin in Final Push Up Ahead of Month-End Low

25 August 2022

Despite a little bullish burst in crypto and other equity index futures across the board so far today, the view stands that we are not due a low in Bitcoin until the end of the month.  

The hourly chart here shows Bitcoin channelling up from the 20 August low, in what I still think is a wave 4 congestion phase. Since the dominant trend at this degree of magnitude is down, we are anticipating a final wave 5 push lower.  

The advance has been extremely choppy and all of that overlap speaks to a corrective structure rather than a non-overlapping impulsive advance with legs. I am not expecting price to reach this high, but US$22,400 (some 3% higher) marks the 4 August spike price low and is the bottom of a potential resistance band. 

Nor is MACD behaving consistent with a burgeoning rally: it is cluttered and wandering around more or less aimlessly. Momentum tends to lead price and as a lead indicator here, it does not imply a robust build up in power. Waiting for this push to exhaust itself and for price to sink lower again.

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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