Blocksmith Says: BTC to Fall Before Rising

18 August 2022

Looking at the 240-minute chart for Bitcoin today. The expectation is for a nest of lows, up to the magnitude of the 80-day cycle, sometime in the first week of September somewhat below US$22,000. I have plotted the arc of the 80-day cycle over the data in light blue but the trading cycle is that of the 40-day cycle.  

There are two 40-day cycles (darker blue semi-circles) in an 80-day and the second 40-day cycle in the longer set topped on 15 August at US$25,203. This means that price now has falling 40 and 80-day cycles as its tailwind, which should force price lower.   

The preferred view is for a decent advance possibly 20%+ from the upcoming cycle trough. It probably will not be a clear shot down and I have drawn in a likely price trajectory. Underpinning the price path once price bottoms in early September is a longer up cycle, that of the 40-week cycle which bottomed on 19 June. This cycle is only 60 days old and its status therefore remains up.

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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