Blocksmith Says: Top Out in USD Useful for Crypto

8 July 2022

Today we’re looking at the dollar index view, specifically the monthly bar chart arithmetic. Regression channel is up from 2008 lows. Two standard errors out at right edge = 115 ish. Note the character of DXY is for upside overspills before collapse. Note also there is a clear four-year cycle and that we are in the top zone…

The nominal top would be mid-semicircle, but because there is a strong underlying uptrend it will be pushed forward in time and peak later. This is called “right translation” in cycles peak. Note also that RSI is back in the top zone, with little further room to expand.

This is a long chart so I’m not making an immediate call to action, but note well this shows the end of the regime. The preferred view is up some more to that upper line, probably overspill a bit then plunge and regroup, then try again but fail.

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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