Blocksmith Says: BTC Not Currency Biased

1 July 2022

If you have been looking at Bitcoin versus the three major currencies (USD, EUR and JPY), you will have noticed variance. For example in the current session the one day change in XBTUSD is +3.9%, whereas for XBTEUR its -3.1% and XBTJPY – 3.8%. So versus the US dollar we’ve had an upshift. However, the five day change shows XBTUSD -9% whereas XBTEUR +9% and XBTJPY +8%, which marks a downshift.   

At the same time in the current session, however, the high to low change in percent terms is steady across all three pairs at around 11%.  And in fact going back to the start of 2022, the average spread of intraday price change is remarkable even across all three at around 6%. 

I have normalised the chart here to range from 0 to 100 to account for substantially different number values. For example, XBTJPY is trading at JPY2,616,586 at the time of writing, but XBTUSD trades at US$19,352. 

Since 1 January 2022 XBTUSD correlates at +0.99 to XBTEUR, but at only +0.96 to XBTJPY.  Notice currently however that vs USD, Bitcoin is outperforming the other two pairs and notice also that the spike low that we have been looking at as a potential downside barrier in XBTUSD on 18 June is not present at all in EUR and JPY.  This read across makes the big low barrier idea more contentious.

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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