Blocksmith Says: BTC Tests Bottom Range

4 May 2022

As US sovereign 10 year yield and the US Dollar Index (DXY) look to be nearing the top of their trajectories since late year (currently just below 3% and 104 respectovely), the market could be early stage setting up for a macro rotation, one that would favour equities and crypto near term. 

At the same time Bitcoin is near the bottom of a range that could arguably be traced back to January this year and also with the January “uptrend support” line under challenge.  By itself these factors do not present a conviction case for Long Bitcoin right here right now, but they do start to suggest that ease of movement down is less pronounced – inasmuch as there are barriers in the way. 

Note also that volatility is almost entirely absent, looking at the size of recent candle bodies, the short candle wicks and the overall overlapping congested nature recently.  Typically low volatility and market stagnation is a lead indicator for higher volatility.  The view remains that despite the seemingly ceaseless grinding in crypto, the resolution will be to the upside. 

Once this begins we can think about upside targets back across the range.  For now its sit tight and wait.  It’s neither a time to be deserting crypto, nor is it time to be placing outsize bets. 

Blockhead Team
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