Crypto ETFs Gain Momentum as Analysts Predict High Approval Odds

Bloomberg's James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas say the odds of approval for new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are increasing, according to a series of tweets by the ETF analysts.

Their analysis focuses on pending applications for spot ETFs tied to Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, all of which they see as having strong chances of gaining regulatory approval.

Balchunas estimates that Litecoin ETFs have a 90% chance of approval, followed by Dogecoin at 75%, Solana at 70%, and XRP at 65%. He noted that these odds have risen sharply in recent months, particularly since Donald Trump’s presidential election victory.

“Keep in mind all of this stuff (except Litecoin, which was always high) was <5% prior to the election,” he said, pointing to shifting attitudes toward crypto regulation.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) still has to determine how some cryptocurrencies should be classified – either as securities or commodities. Seyffart cautioned that XRP’s legal battle with the SEC could delay ETF approval.

“Until that whole mess of litigation between Ripple/XRP and the SEC is settled and/or finished or has some sort of expected outcome, you likely won’t see an ETF,” he said.

However, Commissioner Hester Peirce’s crypto task force may help bring more clarity to the issue.

Cardano ETF Proposal Moves Forward

In a related development, NYSE Arca has filed an application on behalf of Grayscale to launch a Cardano (ADA) spot ETF, The Block reported on Monday.

If approved, it would be the first ETF linked to Cardano, which is currently the ninth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, at around $25 billion, per Coinmarketcap data. The filing is part of the SEC’s standard review process for new ETFs.

The proposed Grayscale Cardano Trust would be administered by BNY Mellon Asset Servicing, with Coinbase Custody Trust Company as its custodian. According to NYSE Arca, listing a Cardano ETF would increase competition and provide investors with access to a broader range of digital assets. The SEC is now set to review the proposal and collect public comments.

Regulatory and Political Shifts

Trump’s return to office has coincided with a more favorable stance toward crypto regulation, encouraging issuers to push ahead with new ETF filings. The SEC is also reviewing a proposal from Cboe BZX Exchange that could allow for in-kind redemptions and creations for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, a technical adjustment that could benefit investors.

With more regulatory clarity and rising institutional interest, crypto ETFs appear to be gaining traction. If approvals continue, more digital assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum could soon be available through regulated investment products.