Will Crypto Actually Pump if Trump Wins the US Election?

The US election is less than 24 hours away, with a result expected by this time tomorrow. With months of anticipation ahead of the event, the crypto community has trepidatiously waited for this crucial moment in time, which will heavily shape the next four years of America's hegemony.

Donald Trump has been the crypto industry's favourite throughout his campaign. Pledging to be the "Crypto President," expelling Gary Gensler from the SEC, and even backing his own crypto project in the form of World Liberty Financial, Trump has made an unreserved effort to win over the crypto community.

Kamala Harris has taken a relatively more discreet approach to the crypto industry. Perhaps recognising that American crypto folk aren't too pleased with the current status quo under incumbent President Joe Biden, Harris has pledged her commitment to establishing a regulatory framework for the industry.

Election betting odds on Polymarket have converged over the past few days. Having established a sizeable lead throughout the end of October and early November, Trump's lead has now diminished to just over 60%, while Harris's odds stand at around 40%.

But with all the anticipation, promises, and election fever captivating the wider world as well as Americans, how will the outcome impact crypto? Will a Trump win live up to the expectations of the industry or will Harris offer a more stable economy?

To answer this, we turned to the clever clogs at BRN. "A Trump victory is expected to drive immediate positive returns for Bitcoin, fueled by his proposal for a 'Bitcoin Stockpile' and other supportive factors," BRN analyst Valentin Fournier stated.

"His pro-crypto stance, plans to make the U.S. a global crypto leader, and anticipated easing of SEC oversight would likely encourage innovation, expand funding access, and strengthen regulatory support."

Although BRN believes short-term investor sentiment may be "less bullish" for a Harris win, the research house highlights that the Democratic candidate has "shown a more pro-crypto stance than Biden, advocating for a clearer regulatory framework.

Furthermore, with Gensler potentially resigning, such a shift could reduce regulatory uncertainty while "still prioritizing investor protections," BRN states.

Therefore, BRN expects Bitcoin's price to fluctuate by 10% post-election, with a "positive impact anticipated under Trump and a potential dip if Harris prevails."

But for the medium to long term, Bitcoin still "remains favourable," argues BRN, regardless of the election outcome.

"Despite the recent correction, we maintain a positive outlook on Bitcoin’s potential for strong upward momentum and significant gains post-election, even if Harris secures the presidency," BRN concludes. "We recommend sustaining a solid position in Bitcoin, as the potential upside outweighs the immediate risks."