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In a significant development for political forecasting and market analysis, Bloomberg Terminal is integrating data from Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction markets platform.
This integration, announced on September 3 by Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan in a post on X, is expected to thrust Polymarket’s data into the spotlight of mainstream political discourse, just as the platform experiences unprecedented growth.
"What once was a fringe, sci-fi idea for transforming the flow of information is now becoming the new normal, as 10s of millions of people build habit around relying on Polymarket forecasts as a source of truth, to make sense of what’s going on in the world," Coplan tweeted.
The Bloomberg Terminal has now integrated Polymarket.
— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) September 3, 2024
Entering mainstream news and finance before our eyes.
What once was a fringe, sci-fi idea for transforming the flow of information is now becoming the new normal, as 10s of millions of people build habit around relying on… https://t.co/HT8aQOtbtl
The integration was officially confirmed by Michael McDonough, Bloomberg’s chief economist for financial products. On August 29, McDonough announced that Polymarket data had been incorporated into Bloomberg Terminal, showcasing it alongside traditional polling data from sources such as RealClearPolitics (RPC) and PredictIt. A recent screenshot shared by McDonough displayed Polymarket’s election market data positioned between RPC’s polling figures and PredictIt’s market forecasts.
Current Polymarket data reveals a tight race for the 2024 US presidential election. Traders are placing a 53% probability on Donald Trump winning the election, with Trump slightly ahead of Kamala Harris, who is projected at 46%.
Blockhead
The integration comes at a time when Polymarket is witnessing a surge in adoption. The platform has achieved record trade volumes and active user numbers for the fourth consecutive month. According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket hosted $472.9 million worth of trades from 63,616 unique wallets in August. The daily trading volume reached an all-time high of $29.8 million on August 6, while daily user numbers peaked at 9,555 on August 23.
This heightened activity is also driving an influx of new users, with sign-ups hitting a new record of 71,670 in August, representing a 1,791% increase from 3,790 in April. Notably, election markets have been the primary driver of this growth, accounting for 73.8% of the platform’s weekly volume as of September 2. In contrast, volume for non-election markets has seen a 43% decline, totaling $16.2 million compared to a high of $28.3 million in late July.
Earlier this year, the platform raised $45 million in a Series B funding round led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and insiders 1confirmation and ParaFi, Vitalik Buterin, and Dragonfly Capital, bringing its total funding raised to $70 million.
