Blocksmith Says: Upswings Favoured for ETH

8 November 2022

Ethereum is in the news at the moment on FTX liquidity/contagion concerns as a competitor looks to go after them. There are asset concerns and Ethereum, along with the rest of the crypto space, have fallen hard in sympathy. So let’s see what the cycles tell us.

Analysis: the preferred view is that ETH finds support at the 20 day cycle trough, due roughly now and just lower in price, and then rallies into the 40 day cycle peak by the third week of November.

A new 80 day cycle likely kicked off on 13 October and is only 26 days along so far. The average wavelength of this cycle in the dataset is 92 days, so its phase is only 28% and its status should be Up. Additionally, the July low is confirmed as that of a 40 week cycle trough and this cycle’s phase is only 43%. Its status is also Up and technically it is acting as a longer term tailwind. Broadly speaking then, there is a bid in the market, which should dampen downswings and favour upswings. 

The down cross of the 20 day FLD in the current session generates a downside target of US$1,429 (some 40 points lower). A traditional technical analysis trend line is also intersected here and the top of the September-October base is just below US$1,400 and is a likely support ledge. 

If price stabilises and then advances, then the next aiming point is the 40 day cycle peak due above US$1,600 around 24 November.

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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