Blocksmith Says: Near Term Bottoming for Crypto

30 September 2022

Gold daily here clearly shows price bottoming out of at least a 40-day cycle low and perhaps even a much longer 20-week cycle low. How do we know this? 

Because of the principle of harmonicity in cycles theory. There are two 40-day cycles in the 80-day cycle, and two 80-day cycles in the twenty week. I count four 40 day semi-circle representations which implies the 20 week. The reason it’s important to understand the magnitude of a cycle trough is because very commonly (but not always) the wavelength of the cycle is proportional to its amplitude or power. Longer cycle troughs create bigger moves.  

A hundred or so points higher is the top of the March downtrend channel, we call this the channel return line. This is where we see if a new grander uptrend is underway, ie. If price breaks out. You should, at the very minimum, expect a sharpish pullback here, but it is what happens after that that counts. Crypto has not quite caught up to the move in Gold yet but the preferred view remains for a near-term bottoming out and advance.

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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