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In the last ETH note I stated that the 80 day cycle low was in place, that it was countertrend (because 20 week cycle is falling and acting as a headwind) but nevertheless forecast that price should start reaching up into a target box between 1780 and 2220 before rolling over. Then came the hot CPI print and dollar rally which clubbed crypto and equity indices around the world and pushed the dollar into a hard upside reversal.
ETH did hit the bottom of the target box (1789 actually) but then reversed down sharply. Sadly I think it is now safe to say that the 80 day cycle has topped earlier than expected and that the price path is down into the mid November 20 week cycle low. If this view is accurate then expect a short sharp rally soon as the 40 day cycle bottoms, but this shorter cycle is likely to top out early as well and then the decline should steepen up.
