Blocksmith Says: Potential Long Opportunity for BTC After Trough

The chart shows Bitcoin at the 240-min level. The preferred view is that a 40-day cycle trough is due at the end of August and this is the next trading target. As we cannot short sell directly, this is where we can start lining up the next trading long, which could reach as high as US$24,000 by October.

An estimate at this stage of the 40-day trough price level is US$19,600, the potential next long opportunity therefore could be some 22%.

A few supporting pieces of evidence for “down for rest of month” thesis are as follows: the next higher cycle, the 80-day is also heading down and acting as a tailwind. Price is currently creeping along a trend “support” line in a choppy manner, characteristic of a correction. This chop having started straight out of a very sharp down move looks like wave 4 of 5 down in the structure from the 15 August top. A negative reversal has just posted in RSI – as a reminder, this is where RSI powers up and yet price does not follow. Poor ease of movement to the upside is a bearish indication.