Blocksmith Says: Ethereum to Head Downward

9 August 2022

The 19 June low was likely that of the 80 day cycle. This cycle occurs in all market data and harmonically divides down into two 40 day cycles, four 20 day cycles and so on..  The nominal cycle period of 80 days is a long term average and there is variation.  The current 80 day cycle is running slightly short at around 75 days and an estimate for the next trough is 9 September.   

We are 51 days along the cycle at present (68%) and so currently this cycle is heading down. This does not necessarily mean prices neatly fall across the rest of August, because longer cycles could be heading up thereby muting the 80 day cycle’s downswing. 

However, even though price is now trading some 60 points above the key resistance level we have been eyeing recently, we have just tagged the top of the Bollinger band within what is still a potential resistance layer and RSI has been posting lower peaks since 19 July. 

The takeaway from all of these technical factors is: Ethereum is stretched to the upside, the main cycle is falling, momentum is spotty and this Is all happening within a potential upside barrier range. We are seeing a similar profile in Nasdaq futures, Nikkei futures have just been rejected at key resistance, S&P 500 futures are struggling below a breakout level. My view remains: price path down.

Christopher Grafton
Christopher Grafton

Chris has been working in the markets for over 15 years variously as a broker, analyst and researcher. He is the author of a well-known book on Hurst cycles analysis, and runs his own market analysis software platform on Bloomberg. He’s also a keen student of both the cello and Brazilian Jiujitsu.

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